2008 NOV 10 - (VerticalNews.com) -- According to recent research from Russia, "A generalization of the fluctuation-dissipation theorem (FDT) that allows generation of linear response operators that estimate the response of functionals of system state variables is tested for a system defined by an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM). A sketch of the proof of this generalization is provided, followed by comparison of response estimates based on the theory and actual responses of the AGCM for various idealized anomalous equatorial heat sources. ...read more

  2008 SEP 8 - (VerticalNews.com) -- According to recent research from the United States, "The stochastic kinetic equation is solved analytically for precipitating particles that can be identified as rain, snow, and graupel. The general solution for the size spectra of the large-size particles is represented by the product of an exponential term and a term that is an algebraic function of radius."

  "The slope of the exponent consists of the Marshall-Palmer slope and an additional integral that is a function of the radius. Both the integral and algebraic terms depend on the condensation and accretion rates, vertical velocity, turbulence coefficient, terminal velocity of the particles, and the vertical gradient of the liquid ( ice) water content. At sufficiently large radii, the radius dependence of the algebraic term is a power law, and the spectra have the form of gamma distributions. Simple analytical expressions are derived for the slopes and indices of the size distributions. These solutions provide explanations of the observed dependencies of the cloud particle spectra in different phases and size regimes on temperature, height, turbulence, vertical velocities, liquid or ice water content, and other cloud properties," wrote V.I. Khvorostyanov and colleagues ...read more

  2008 JUL 21 - (VerticalNews.com) -- According to recent research published in the Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, "This paper investigates the nature of model error in complex deterministic nonlinear systems such as weather forecasting models. Forecasting systems incorporate two components, a forecast model and a data assimilation method."

  "The latter projects a collection of observations of reality into a model state. Key features of model error can be understood in terms of geometric properties of the data projection and a model attracting manifold. Model error can be resolved into two components: a projection error, which can be understood as the model's attractor being in the wrong location given the data projection, and direction error, which can be understood as the trajectories of the model moving in the wrong direction compared to the projection of reality into model space. This investigation introduces some new tools and concepts, including the shadowing filter, causal and noncausal shadow analyses, and various geometric diagnostics. Various properties of forecast errors and model errors are described with reference to low-dimensional systems, like Lorenz's equations; then, an operational weather forecasting system is shown to have the same predicted behavior," wrote K. Judd and colleagues, University of Western Australia ...read more